Mini-dollar tests resistance amid fiscal uncertainty

December mini-dollar contracts closed the last session up 0.93%. The spot currency reached R$ 5.4460 and hit its highest value in 2026. This movement reflects market anxiety regarding the state of government accounts and the lack of confirmed names to lead the economy.

The Ibovespa suffered five consecutive losses and fell 18.12% for the week. National unemployment reached 5.2% as expected by analysts. Pressure on the index weighed mainly on banks and consumer companies due to the rise in futures interest rates.

Abroad, the landscape also brought instability to risk assets. US stock markets retreated due to concerns over tech company spending on artificial intelligence projects. This global trend impacts the appetite for Brazilian assets and increases currency volatility.

The market is now monitoring the Ptax formation and upcoming Copom decisions. The path for the real depends on clarity regarding budgetary planning and ministerial appointments. Whether the dollar remains above specific technical ranges will determine if the rally continues or if profit-taking begins.