Higher MEI Revenue Cap Could Widen Pension Deficit

Raising the annual revenue cap for individual micro-entrepreneurs (MEI) to R$ 140,000 poses long-term fiscal risks. Projections show the measure could increase the General Social Security Regime deficit by between R$ 60 billion and R$ 98 billion from 2027 to 2099.

Expert Rogério Nagamine Costanzi estimates the change will attract about 500,000 new participants. This calculation assumes the monthly contribution remains fixed at 5% of the minimum wage and uses IBGE mortality tables to measure the actuarial impact.

There is concern that the new threshold will encourage employees to leave formal payroll jobs for the individual business model. This shift could reduce employer tax contributions and worsen financial imbalances in a system already strained by Brazil's aging population.

The approved legislation establishes a gradual transition. The annual revenue limit will rise to R$ 110,000 next year and reach the maximum level of R$ 140,000 starting in 2028.

The program's accumulated actuarial deficit, excluding this new expansion, is already estimated at R$ 711 billion. This analysis accounts for age-based retirement under current rules for men and women while excluding risk benefits such as disability pay.