Record Household Debt Stifles Brazilian Retail Sales

Brazilian household debt has reached a record high of 50.1% of income accumulated over the last twelve months according to Central Bank data. This scenario puts pressure on consumption and limits purchasing potential during this year's Black Friday.

Expectations are that sales will focus on lower-value items. Durable goods such as furniture and appliances face greater difficulties in attracting customers due to high credit costs.

IEMI projections estimate that restricted retail may generate 296.8 billion reais in November 2026. This figure represents a 2.5% drop compared to the same period in 2025.

The portion of monthly income committed to debt payments has reached a historic level of 29%. The Consumer Debt and Default Survey reveals that 81.6% of families held debt in October.

Factors such as tax increases and rising imports worsen the outlook for the end of the year. The payment of the thirteenth-month salary offers limited relief that is unlikely to reverse the trend of restrained consumption.