Geopolitical Uncertainty Keeps Oil Prices High

The global oil market is facing a period of prolonged uncertainty. The current dynamic between the United States and Iran is described as a state of neither peace nor war.

Reports show that the political room for military escalation has narrowed following shifts in the American electoral landscape. The probability of new direct conflicts has dropped significantly in the view of geopolitical experts.

Tehran maintains the ability to influence strategic energy export routes. The Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb region remain pressure points for the West.

Israel still has incentives for aggressive actions due to the partial recovery of Iran's military capabilities. However the cautious stance of the White House acts as a constraint on further escalation.

Barrel prices are expected to fluctuate between 80 and 100 dollars over the next twelve months. This level reflects low global inventories and the lack of alternatives for current maritime routes.

The persistence of this geopolitical risk premium may increase volatility in risk assets and pressure global inflation. This trend tends to strengthen the dollar and heighten risk aversion in the crypto market.